Travel Industry Faces $120 Billion AI Influence Shift

AI's Growing Impact on Travel Bookings

Raven's research, published on 11 November 2026, suggests that artificial intelligence could influence up to $120 billion in online travel bookings annually. This projection assumes AI guides just one in ten online travel dollars spent.

The study, which analysed 9,454 responses from AI assistants like ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity concerning 101 airlines, highlights a critical distinction for the industry: the entity earning an AI recommendation may often be different from the one that ultimately completes the sale.

This dynamic challenges traditional customer acquisition models for travel providers, potentially shifting revenue away from direct channels.

OTAs Gain Ground in AI Referrals

The research revealed that while AI assistants named a specific airline in 78 per cent of queries and recommended one in 55 per cent, they linked directly to the airline's own website in only 27 per cent of cases. For 85 of the 101 carriers examined, online travel agencies (OTAs) and comparison sites collectively received more direct links than the airlines themselves.

This trend suggests that years of effort by airlines to drive direct and New Distribution Capability (NDC) channel bookings could be undermined as AI assistants steer customers elsewhere. Phocuswright previously forecast global online travel bookings to reach $1.2 trillion in 2026, making each percentage point of AI influence worth $12 billion.

Rapid Adoption of AI Assistants

The use of AI assistants in travel is accelerating. Similarweb estimated that AI platforms directed 534 million visits to travel websites in the year to May 2026, marking a 116 per cent increase, with growth quickening since then.

Anthropic's prospectus, released on 2 November 2026, reported $16.96 billion in revenue for the September quarter, an increase of 1,127 per cent year-on-year. Separately, First Page Sage estimated that Claude's monthly active users grew by 7.4 per cent in August, 6.7 per cent in September, and 7.9 per cent in October this year, reaching 312.4 million users.

Despite this activity, current traceable bookings directly attributed to AI clicks remain low, with studies by ABTA and Net Affinity indicating 0.37 per cent to 0.50 per cent of visits or revenue.

Agencies Lead in AI Integration

Online travel agencies have established a significant lead in integrating with major AI platforms. OpenAI launched travel apps within ChatGPT on 6 October 2025, with Booking.com and Expedia as initial partners. Virgin Atlantic became the first airline to offer its own ChatGPT app six months later, followed by easyJet and Southwest in October this year.

Google's AI Mode now permits hotel bookings directly within conversations, featuring Booking.com, Expedia, and Trip.com, though flight purchases still redirect to external sites. This head start, ranging from six months to a year, allows agencies to connect live inventory and convert AI-driven conversations into sales more effectively.

Booking Holdings reported in its November earnings call that external AI referrals still accounted for less than 1 per cent of Booking.com's room sales, but customers using its internal AI assistants on Priceline and Agoda booked at roughly twice the rate of other visitors.

Implications for Asian Travel Markets

For Asian carriers, hotels, and online travel platforms, these developments underscore a pressing need to re-evaluate digital marketing and distribution strategies.

While Raven's research did not specifically focus on Asian markets, the global trends suggest that consumers across Asia, known for their rapid adoption of digital technologies, will increasingly rely on AI assistants for travel planning.

Asian online travel agencies, such as Trip.com, which received 2,209 out of 2,350 links in Raven's sample from Perplexity alone, are already demonstrating success in capturing AI-driven traffic.

Local airlines and hotel groups must urgently consider integrating their direct booking channels with leading AI conversational platforms and developing their own AI-powered tools to compete with the established advantage of global and regional OTAs.

Failure to adapt could mean losing potential customers at the crucial recommendation stage, before they even consider direct booking options.