Global Tourism Growth Slows in H1 2026, UN Tourism Halves Outlook

Global Arrivals See Modest Increase Amidst Challenges

International tourism recorded a modest 0.4 per cent growth during the first half of 2026, with approximately 690 million tourists travelling abroad, UN Tourism reported. This figure represented an increase of about 3 million international arrivals compared to the same period in 2025.

While global arrivals initially grew by 2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, they saw a 1 per cent decline in the second quarter. UN Tourism attributed this slowdown partly to the impact of the Middle East conflict and elevated travel costs, which also contributed to a 3 per cent fall in arrivals in April and a further 3 per cent decline in June.

Middle East Experiences Sharp Decline, Other Regions Vary

Regional performance for international arrivals was mixed in the first half of 2026, according to UN Tourism. The Middle East experienced the sharpest decline, with arrivals falling 22 per cent during the six-month period as the ongoing conflict directly affected tourism activity.

In contrast, Africa recorded a 4 per cent growth in international arrivals, followed by Europe at 3 per cent, and the Americas with a 2 per cent increase. Air traffic disruptions in the Middle East, which began in early March, gradually eased in May and June after a ceasefire announcement, leading to some route reopenings and an uneven recovery in traveller confidence.

Asia-Pacific Growth Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

The Asia and the Pacific region saw a 1 per cent growth in international arrivals in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025, UN Tourism stated. However, the region remained 11 per cent below its 2019 arrival levels. This persistent gap was attributed to ongoing disruptions in air connectivity, higher air fares, and uncertainty impacting intra-regional demand.

Within Asia-Pacific, North-East Asia recorded a 3 per cent growth, while South Asia experienced a 5 per cent decline and South-East Asia saw a 1 per cent drop. South-East Asia's June decline included 5 per cent fewer arrivals, influenced by weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, Middle East air travel disruptions, and increased travel costs. Oceania also noted a 6 per cent fall in June, partly due to Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.

Outlook for Asian Travel Amidst Cost and Conflict Pressures

Against this backdrop, UN Tourism has revised its full-year 2026 global growth forecast for international tourist arrivals to 1–2 per cent, down from its earlier projection of 3–4 per cent. This updated outlook depends significantly on the duration of the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices and inflation.

For Asian travellers and the industry, UN Tourism expects a continued focus on value for money, which may encourage greater demand for destinations closer to home and increased domestic travel.

Given the declines in South Asia and South-East Asia, and the region's overall lag behind 2019 figures, Asian airlines and tourism boards may need to intensify efforts to stimulate intra-regional demand and offer competitive pricing to mitigate the impact of global uncertainties and rising costs.