Japanese Outbound Travel Forecast to Decline This Summer Amid Weak Yen, Rising Costs
Japanese consumers are projected to reduce overseas travel this summer, with research firms Intage and JTB both forecasting an 8.8 per cent year-on-year drop. This decline is largely attributed to a depreciated yen and escalating travel expenses, prompting travellers to favour more affordable regional Asian destinations.
Outbound Travel Projections Show Significant Drop
Japanese consumers are expected to undertake fewer overseas trips during the upcoming summer period, primarily due to the weakening yen and increasing travel expenditures. Tokyo-based research firm Intage projects an 8.8 per cent year-on-year decrease in outbound travel from mid-July to the end of September 2026. This forecast is based on its survey of individuals aged 15 to 79, which assessed their international holiday plans for the specified duration. The findings, reported by TTG Asia on 30 July 2026, highlight a significant shift in Japanese travel patterns as economic pressures reshape consumer behaviour regarding international leisure travel.
JTB Corroborates Trend, Reveals Destination Shifts
Further reinforcing Intage's analysis, a separate study by JTB, covering travel plans from 15 July to 31 August 2026, also indicates an 8.8 per cent year-on-year fall in outbound travel. Despite the reduction in trips, JTB's report notes that average planned travel expenditure is set to rise by 6.3 per cent year-on-year, reaching 323,000 yen. JTB's research, cited by TTG Asia, reveals a growing inclination among Japanese travellers towards overseas destinations where local prices are reasonable, the yen's impact is minimal, and airfares remain relatively low. The most popular destinations for Japanese travellers this summer include South Korea (26.2 per cent), Taiwan (16.2 per cent), the US and Canada (10.4 per cent), China (10.1 per cent), and Hong Kong and Macao (9.4 per cent).
Weak Yen and Geopolitical Concerns Drive Changes
The primary factors contributing to the anticipated decline in Japanese outbound travel are the sustained weakness of the yen against major currencies and the general increase in overseas costs. Intage's study shows that overseas travel budgets have climbed by 129,798 yen (US$794), now averaging 531,505 yen, largely attributable to these higher prices. Geopolitical events also influence travel decisions; 26 per cent of Intage's survey respondents considered the Strait of Hormuz crisis when formulating their travel plans. This led to various adjustments, including adapting destination choices, modifying budgets, avoiding or cancelling international trips altogether, or opting for domestic holidays instead, according to the TTG Asia report from 30 July 2026.
Industry Outlook and Asian Market Implications
Despite the current economic headwinds, international travel remains a priority for Japanese consumers, even as they adapt to the weaker yen and increased overseas costs. Jun Otani, managing director Japan for Travelex, told TTG Asia that outbound travel demand from Japan is expected to demonstrate resilience over the coming months. He highlighted the favourable Silver Week holiday in September, which allows travellers to create a nine-day holiday by taking just two days of annual leave. Otani anticipates sustained demand for both regional Asian destinations and longer-haul travel to Europe and North America. He also notes a healthy demand for foreign currency exchange, as travellers increasingly secure exchange rates before departure as part of their planning. The clear preference for East Asian destinations such as South Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and Macao, as identified by JTB, suggests that while overall outbound numbers may decrease, intra-Asia travel remains a robust segment. This trend stands to benefit airlines and hospitality providers in these neighbouring Asian markets, who may see a shift in demand towards more value-oriented options from Japan.
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