UN Tourism Lowers 2026 Global Arrivals Forecast Amid Rising Costs

Forecast Revised Downwards for 2026

UN Tourism has reduced its projected growth for international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2026, revising the forecast to between 1% and 2%. This marks a significant cut from its earlier projection of 3% to 4% made in January.

The global body attributes this downgrade primarily to the ongoing Middle East conflict, higher oil prices, and persistent inflation, all of which are exerting pressure on travel expenses and consumer confidence.

The updated forecast reflects a challenging first half of 2026, which saw only marginal growth in global arrivals, indicating the sector's struggle with geopolitical uncertainties and increasing operational costs.

Weak Global Performance in First Half

Between January and June 2026, international tourist arrivals globally increased by just 0.4% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching an estimated 690 million. This represents approximately 3 million more arrivals than a year earlier, a rate that UN Tourism described as fragile.

The second quarter experienced a 1% decline in global arrivals, with April recording a 3% fall, partly due to the Easter holiday period and the effects of the Middle East conflict. June also saw a 3% decrease in global arrivals, with Western Europe contributing significantly to this decline, recording a 6% drop amid heatwaves affecting several destinations.

Southeast Asia Faces Declines

The Middle East region recorded a substantial 22% decline in international tourist arrivals during the first half of 2026, directly impacted by the conflict. Other regions also experienced downturns, with Southeast Asia seeing a 1% fall in arrivals over the same six-month period compared to 2025. In June alone, Southeast Asia received 5% fewer international tourist arrivals.

UN Tourism attributed this specific decline to weaker demand from Asian markets, broader geopolitical tensions, disruptions to air travel through the Middle East, and elevated travel costs.

Despite these regional challenges, the wider Asia and the Pacific region recorded an overall growth of 1% in the first half, although arrivals remained 11% below 2019 levels, hampered by disrupted air connections, higher fares, and lingering uncertainty.

Outlook and Traveller Priorities

UN Tourism indicates that the outlook for the remainder of 2026 hinges on the duration of the Middle East conflict and its cascading effects on global oil prices and overall inflation.

International travellers are expected to continue prioritising value for money, opting for destinations closer to home or choosing domestic holidays in response to elevated prices and persistent uncertainty. For Asian travellers and operators, this trend suggests a continued focus on intra-regional travel and competitive pricing strategies.

Operators in Southeast Asia, in particular, will need to adapt their offerings to address reduced demand from key Asian markets and the ongoing pressure from increased travel costs, which may necessitate a shift towards promoting local and regional tourism.