Indonesia Visitor Numbers Rebound, Wider Tourism Recovery Lags

International Arrivals Exceed 2019 Figures

Indonesia's international visitor numbers are projected to reach 16.2 million by the end of 2026, slightly exceeding the 16.11 million recorded in 2019. This forecast follows a reported 10.58 million arrivals between January and August 2026, representing a 5.38 per cent year-on-year increase.

These figures, presented by the Confederation of Indonesian Tourism Associations (GIPI) Chairman Hariyadi Sukamdani, are based on data from the Ministry of Tourism. While the rebound in visitor volume indicates a strong return to pre-pandemic levels for inbound travel, the broader tourism sector has not yet seen a full recovery across all segments.

Accommodation and Aviation Sectors Remain Below 2019 Levels

Despite the surge in international visitors, key indicators for Indonesia's accommodation and aviation industries are still below their 2019 benchmarks. In 2025, the country's hotel supply expanded to 34,702 units, an increase from 27,607 in 2021. However, average hotel occupancy in 2025 stood at 49.26 per cent, falling short of the 54.99 per cent achieved in 2019.

The aviation sector also shows a deficit, with the Indonesia National Air Carriers Association (INACA) reporting 560 aircraft in 2026, down from 616 in 2019. Domestic passenger volumes decreased to 61.2 million in 2025 from 79.4 million in 2019, and international passenger numbers also declined from 37.3 million to 34.7 million over the same period.

Industry Challenges and Regional Competition

GIPI Chairman Hariyadi Sukamdani identified several factors hindering a more comprehensive recovery, including high aviation operating costs, increasing labour expenses, complex licensing procedures, and limited access to bank financing for tourism businesses. The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia further complicates Indonesia's position.

Eddy Soemawilaga, AirAsia's Director of Indonesia Affairs and Strategic Communications and President of the ASEAN Tourism Association, noted that Vietnam recorded 14.4 per cent growth in international visitor arrivals from January to August 2026, significantly outpacing Indonesia's 5.38 per cent increase during the same period. In contrast, Cambodia experienced a 44.4 per cent decline in arrivals, according to its Ministry of Tourism.

Promoting Growth and Addressing Funding Gaps

To stimulate broader industry growth, GIPI plans joint promotional campaigns and tourism packages in collaboration with the Association of Indonesian Tours and Travel Agencies and other industry groups, including those for recreation parks and spas.

These efforts will target regional markets, with initiatives in Malaysia highlighting destinations such as Padang, Medan, and Bandung, alongside enhanced ferry services to Batam. Domestically, GIPI sees potential in emerging destinations, the creative economy, and catering to Gen Z and active retiree demographics.

Chairman Sukamdani also called for stronger government support, noting that the Ministry of Tourism's 2026 budget of approximately 1.8 trillion rupiah (US$101.1 million) is considerably less than the 5.03 trillion rupiah (US$282.6 million) in visa-fee revenue generated in 2024 alone.